How it works
A prediction market turns a question about the future into a price. The price is the crowd's best guess at the probability — and if you disagree with it, that disagreement is a position you can take.
Find a market
Every market is a question with exactly two outcomes and a date it settles on. Browse by category, search, or start from what is trending.
Choose your side
A price of 64¢ means the market puts the outcome at roughly a 64% chance. The two sides always add up to about a dollar — buying one is the same as selling the other.
Trade your conviction
If you think the market is wrong, take the other side. Your edge is the gap between the price and what you believe the real probability is.
Wait for the outcome
When the real-world event resolves, the market settles. One side is worth a dollar per share, the other is worth nothing.
Redeem
Winning positions can be redeemed for their settled value.
What is live today
Where these prices come from
The markets on this site are real, live markets from Polymarket, read through its public API. The prices, volumes and end dates you see are theirs, not ours, and they update as those markets trade.
Ponsly does not run these markets and takes no position in them. When Ponsly's own markets go live on Robinhood Chain, prices will come from Ponsly's own order flow — and this page will say so.
Reading a price
Prices run from 0¢ to 100¢ and are quoted per share. A share pays one dollar if its outcome happens and nothing if it does not. So buying at 64¢ risks 64¢ to make 36¢ — the market is telling you it thinks that is roughly a fair bet.
Not every market is a yes-or-no question. A match between two teams has the two teams as its outcomes. Ponsly shows whatever the market's real sides are called rather than forcing everything into YES and NO.